Introduction and Summary
This chapter outlines the major technical features of the bacteriology monitoring element of
the Santa Monica Bay regional monitoring program. As with the other chapters in this report,
it provides the context and justification for specific design decisions about what parameters to
measure and where and when to measure them. The following summary highlights the major
features of this htmlect of the regional monitoring program.
Available monitoring and research data strongly suggest that discharge plumes from the two
large municipal waste discharges (Hyperion and White Point) do not reach the beaches in the
Bay. Risks to human health from swimming in the Bay thus stem primarily from the input of
pathogens due to nonpoint sources such as rivers, stormdrains, and other runoff. Since these
pathogens cannot be measured directly and easily with existing technology, monitoring and
management focus on a suite of indicator organisms that are presumed to roughly correspond
with health risk. Levels of these indicators can change quickly from day to day depending on
the amount and quality of runoff; there are also large differences among locations along the
shoreline for the same reasons.
The principal mechanism for managing health risks due to swimming is the issuance of
warnings and beach closures by the LA County Department of Health Services. These actions
are based on the comparison of monitoring data to water quality standards and on the
professional interpretation of overall patterns of contamination. Because indicator levels
exhibit high variability and change quickly in response to the nature of runoff, this
management activity must occur in nearly with monitoring data that are as current as
possible.
The monitoring program is designed to respond to these management needs as efficiently as
possible. It does this by:
- Focusing most effort on the shoreline and lesser effort on the inshore (30 foot depth)
- Sampling major storm drains on a daily basis
- Sampling highly frequented beaches on a weekly basis
- Implementing a regional data management system that speeds the submission and
analysis of monitoring data
- Utilizing County Public Works' automated precipitation monitoring network.
In addition, the program identifies specific opportunities for further standardizing methods
among the four agencies monitoring bacterial contamination in the Bay.
Motivating Issues
The primary motivation for bacteriological monitoring is the question, "How safe is it to
swim in the Bay." Regulators and managers can best address this question by meeting the
following objective, adapted from the SMBRP's Comprehensive Framework for
regional monitoring:
Ensure that valid public health standards are met, that illegal discharges are eliminated, and
that information on swimming conditions is rapidly communicated to regulators and the
public. Develop data that clarifies sources and amounts of pathogen inputs, along with a suite
of effective indicators that can be sampled as needed at shoreline and nearshore stations
throughout the Bay.
Monitoring is intended to produce information for three distinct purposes related to this
objective (see Table 1). The first and primary purpose is to furnish regulators and managers
with an
effective tool for determining compliance with regulations and for undertaking actions to
protect public health (beach closures and warnings). The second is to measure bacterial
contamination in a way that can be used to assess relative safety and how this might be
changing over time. The third is to evaluate the effectiveness of restoration actions taken to
reduce pathogen inputs to the Bay.
Each purpose requires monitoring information with particular characteristics (see Table 1).
We use these characteristics to help judge the utility of the monitoring design and
measurement indicators and, where these fall short, to suggest where changes and/or further
research might be needed. As explained further below, it is not always possible for a single
monitoring program to simultaneously fulfill the needs of several different purposes. Some
tradeoffs must therefore be made in order to adequately meet the needs of the primary
purpose - managing compliance and public health.
Table 1.
Three primary management needs and the key characteristics of monitoring
information needed to meet these needs.
- Management Need
- Characteristics of useful Information
- Manage Compliance and Health
- Timely data (daily in many instances)
- Data easily interpreted
- Data clearly related to decision criteria
- Indicators reflect health risk
- Sites reflect human use
- Sites are near sources of contamination
- Assess relative safety
- Indicators reflect health risk
- Data suitable for trend analysis
- Program gives regional coverage
- Sites reflect human use
- Sites are near sources of contamination
- Indicators reflect pathogen inputs
- Reference data available
- Evaluate restoration actions
- Indicators reflect pathogen inputs
- Sites are near sources of contamination
- Data suitable for trend and before/after analyses
- Reference data available
Conceptual Model
An understanding of where contaminants come from, how they work their way through the
ecosystem, and how they produce risks to humans is a fundamental basis for monitoring
design. Such "conceptual models" help focus monitoring on key processes or
parameters and on specific kinds of information most useful for decision making. They also
identify critical assumptions and uncertainties that set limits on how monitoring data can be
interpreted.
Figure 1 shows the interrelated processes that contribute to potential human health impacts
from swimming in the Bay. These occur relatively quickly after exposure (hours to days) and
levels of pathogens vary markedly from day to day, although they are generally higher in the
wet than the dry season. Potential health impacts are diffuse and include illnesses such as
eye, ear, and wound infections, skin rashes, and gastroenteritis. A primary assumption of
this conceptual model is that pathogens, and therefore health risk, die off relatively rapidly
upon exposure to sunlight and seawater. Management actions therefore focus on closing and
opening beaches in response to current monitoring data.
There are several other key judgments and assumptions that help structure the conceptual
model. The first is that nonpoint sources (storm drains -- although regulated as point
sources), other runoff, rivers, and sewage spills) account for the majority of pathogen inputs
to the shoreline and the inshore zone. This primarily reflects rainfall, although occasional
events such as hydrant breaks, upstream spills, and lagoon breaches can create localized and
short-lived contamination. The second is that pathogen contamination from the major sewage
outfalls in the Bay (Hyperion and Whites' Point) does not reach the shoreline and the inshore
zone in any appreciable amount. These judgments are based on 35 years of historical
bacteriological data collected between Point Dume and Malaga Cove that show indicator
counts have not been elevated as a result of effluent from the Hyperion outfall. In addition,
plume tracking studies (Appendix 1) at several locations in California show that bacterial
indicators can be detected in subsurface wastewater plumes for some distance from the
discharge. However, these studies also show that bacterial indicators quickly die when
exposed to sunlight at the surface. Thus, it is unlikely that bacteria would survive long
enough to reach the shoreline even in winter when the lack of stratification allows the plume
to surface. Finally, while low levels of indicator bacteria have been measured at depth off
Whites' Point as a result of effluent discharged from that outfall, process changes controlled
this problem several years ago.
These judgments and assumptions require that the measured bacterial indicators, which are
not themselves pathogens, accurately reflect risks to human health. Thus, a major assumption
implicit in the current management and monitoring system is that non-detectable or low levels
of bacterial indicators necessarily imply low levels of other pathogens that are not monitored
(e.g., viruses). We now know that this is not necessarily true (see
Indicators below) and research efforts will be directed at resolving
this issue (see Further Research below). Since this research,
especially the large-scale epidemiological study, is expensive, labor intensive, and highly
specialized, funding constraints have hampered updating these htmlects of the conceptual
model.
Together, these judgments and assumptions form the basis for the choice of indicators and
for decisions about the monitoring design itself. These issues are discussed further in
following sections.
Assessment/Measurement Endpoints
The illnesses of concern are not only diffuse but also result from many other causes not
related to contamination of the Bay. This makes it extremely difficult to measure the actual
endpoint of human health impacts. Instead, regulatory and management attention has focused
on more measurable endpoints associated with a suite of indicators. For example, in 1993,
there were ten beach closures, primarily during the rainy season.
Managing Compliance and Health
Clear assessment or measurement endpoints exist for only the first of the three management
needs shown in Table 2. Compliance- and health management-related actions are triggered
when counts at sampling stations reach specific levels. According to the California Ocean
Plan, the monthly median for total coliforms shall not exceed 1000 cfu/100mL, provided no
more than 20% of samples from a single station exceed 1000 cfu/100mL in any 30-day
period. Also, no single sample can exceed 10,000 cfu/100mL when verified by a repeat
sample taken within 48 hours. The recommended U.S. EPA standard for fecal coliforms is
somewhat different. Based on no less than five samples from any single station in a 30-day
period, the geometric mean of fecal coliform densities shall not exceed 200 cfu/100mL. Nor
shall more than 10% of the total samples during any 60-day period exceed 400 cfu/100mL.
As yet, no formal standards exist for enterococcus, even though its levels are regularly
monitored and reported, and EPA has recommended a standard.
Any exceedances of these limits are reported to the Regional Water Quality Control Board by
the two POTW dischargers (Los Angeles City and County Sanitation Districts of Los
Angeles)
in monthly NPDES permit reports. More importantly, staff at discharge agencies review test
results daily or weekly, depending on the type of sampling. They communicate these results,
also on a daily or weekly basis, to the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services
(DHS). When elevated counts are found, agency staff talk directly to DHS by phone to
review and interpret the data and plan further actions if needed. This real-time review
process enables responsible staff at discharge agencies to anticipate problems by allocating
additional sampling effort to potential problem areas. When necessary, DHS can notify the
public and close contaminated beaches. DHS compiles data from the discharger sampling
programs, as well as its own shoreline sampling program, and submits a monthly report
to the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.
Assessing Relative Safety
With regard to the second need in Table 2, it is not currently possible to assess absolute
levels of risk and safety because of shortcomings in the available indicators (see Indicators
below). In spite of this, it is possible to use changes in levels of these indicators to
qualitatively assess trends in relative levels of health risk, particularly stemming from sewage
contamination. Thus, risk is assumed to rise or fall in tandem with indicator levels. For
example, Heal the Bay distributes a monthly "report card" on the apparent health status of
beaches in the Bay. In broad terms this is probably true. For example, the drop of several
orders in magnitude in indicator concentrations from the 1950's to the present undoubtedly
reflects a reduction in human health risk. However, the lack of any formal link between
indicator levels and risk makes it impossible for now to set endpoints in terms of specific and
quantitative levels of human health risk.
Evaluating Restoration Actions
Neither have endpoints been established for the third management need, evaluating the
success of Bay Restoration Plan actions to reduce contamination. These actions are still in the
planning stage and it would be premature to establish measurement endpoints at this time.
However, sampling stations have been cited with an eye to measuring the effectiveness of
these actions, when they occur (see Monitoring Design below). For
example, trends over time at specific storm drains could be followed, and structured
comparisons between more contaminated and reference areas could be carried out.
Limitations of the Endpoints
As discussed in the next section (Indicators), these indicators do not
measure human
health risk directly and their relationship to actual risk is not clear. As a result, the
compliance standards are not based on actual estimates of risk but instead represent
commonly accepted arbitrary limits. Improved indicators that reflect actual health risks would
permit the development of more meaningful standards and other endpoints. While such
indicators are not currently available, it is hoped that the planned epidemiology study in
the Bay will provide a clearer picture of the relationship between currently used indicators
and the actual incidence of human health impacts.
Indicators
The three indicators currently used to assess bathing water standards are total and fecal
coliforms and enterococcus bacteria. Each of these are natural residents in the guts of warm
blooded animals. It is therefore assumed that elevated counts of these indicators in bathing
waters demonstrates the presence of animal and/or human waste products and thus the
possible presence of pathogens. While the validity of this assumption, and consequently of
one or the other of these indicators, has been questioned, current knowledge is insufficient to
improve the situation. However, the epidemiology study planned for mid 1995 will hopefully
resolve these questions. We recommend that the suite of indicators be critically reviewed
once data from this study are available.
Advantages of Available Indicators
One of the advantages of these indicators is that they are the basis for bathing water
standards that enable managers to quickly assess whether or not sample results are within
compliance limits. In addition, sampling and analysis procedures are straightforward and
results can be obtained fairly quickly. This ensures that additional sampling can be performed
and health authorities notified within 24 hours of detecting high indicator counts. A further
advantage is that the ratio of fecal to total coliforms can help determine if elevated counts
reflect sewage contamination or an unrelated incident such as soil erosion.
Disadvantages of Available Indicators
These indicators' major disadvantage is that there is no assured link between their presence
in measurable concentrations and the presence of human pathogens. Neither is there an
established link in Santa Monica Bay between their presence and the incidence of human
health effects such as gastroenteritis. Cabelli (1983) found a correlation between elevated
enterococcus concentrations and gastroenteritis incidence at marine bathing beaches on the
east coast. While this has stimulated interest in using enterococcus as an indicator in
monitoring programs, there is concern about the applicability of Cabelli's results to cooler
west coast waters. Establishing dependable indicators must await a more relevant and
thorough epidemiological study (see Further Research below).
Another disadvantage of these bacterial indicators is that most illnesses associated with
swimming in the ocean are likely caused by viruses. The relationship between the behavior
of these indicators (which are bacteria) and associated viral agents is unknown. For example,
it has been speculated that viruses survive much longer in the marine environment than do
bacteria. If true, viral pathogens may still be present in nearshore waters even though
bacterial indicator counts are not elevated. Unfortunately, current methods for measuring
virus concentrations in the environment are cumbersome, slow, and costly, making them
unsuitable for routine monitoring use.
Methods Discrepancies
Four agencies measure indicator bacteria in Santa Monica Bay:
- The City of Los Angeles (Hyperion)
- The County Sanitation Districts of Los Angeles (CSDLA)
- The Los Angeles County Department of Health Services (DHS)
- The Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, which carries out monitoring
in the stormdrain system.
There are differences among these agencies in the laboratory methods they use to process
samples and produce indicator counts. Hyperion and CSDLA use the membrane filtration
method (EPA standard method 9222B for total and 9222D for fecal coliforms), while DHS
and Public Works use the multiple tube method (EPA standard method 9221B for total and
9221C for fecal coliforms). The multiple tube method is more cost effective for measuring
total coliforms alone, but more labor intensive and costly for measuring the complete suite of
indicators (total and fecal coliforms and enterococcus). However, the membrane filtration
method can very occasionally produce contradictory results, with fecal coliform levels higher
than total coliform levels. This is because separate analyses are run for each indicator. A
more important concern is that counts from the membrane filtration method are consistently
higher than those from the multiple tube method. In a 23 day study performed over a two
month period at several shoreline stations in the winter of 1986 - 87, Hyperion found that the
membrane filtration method produced higher values 93.7% of the time for total and 88.9% of
the time for fecal coliforms. Only very rarely were the membrane filtration values as much
as an order of magnitude (10 x) higher. However, in 6.8% of the instances for total and
4.8% for fecal coliforms, the membrane filtration method indicated a violation when the
multiple tube method did not. In only one instance (.005%) was the opposite true. We
recommend that a longer-term goal be to standardize sampling methods across all monitoring
programs. However, we also recommend that this be deferred until results of the 1995
epidemiology study are available and until proposed new methods (e.g., Coli-Alert) are more
thoroughly evaluated. Finally, any revisions must take account of the fact that Public Works'
samples in the stormdrain system typically are more turbid than shoreline and inshore
samples. At present, the multiple tube method is better suited for turbid samples. (see
Regional Coordination below for further discussion.)
Monitoring Design
The monitoring design is based on the fundamental judgments and assumptions in the
conceptual model (see above) and focuses on meeting the management needs described in
Table 2.
Station Locations and Sampling Frequency
Stations are located along the shoreline and in the inshore at 30 feet depth or 1000 feet from
shore, whichever is furthest (Figure 2a and 2b). Complete station descriptions are given
below. The station numbering scheme has been modified. Station names now contain a code
indicating the region of the Bay they are from, whether they are shoreline or inshore stations,
and the agency responsible for sampling the station. They also contain a numeric designation
that represents their position along the coastline and permits additional stations to be added
between existing stations if needed. Both the shoreline and the inshore programs have been
modified to focus more specifically on priority areas of concern and to improve the
program's overall efficiency.
Detailed station descriptions for the shoreline monitoring program. Latitudes and
longitudes are listed in Appendix 1.
Agency Site ID Description
Department of Health Services SDD 010 Leo Carrillo State Beach,
35000 PCH, Malibu (in front of beach restrooms)
Department of Health Services SDD 020 Broad Beach, 30600 PCH, Malibu (in front
of public access stairs)
Department of Health Services SDD 030 Trancas Beach, 30600 Westward Beach Rd.,
Malibu (mouth of Trancas Creek)
Department of Health Services SDD 040 Westward Beach, 6800 Westward Rd.
Malibu (in front of Monroe's Rest.)
Department of Health Services SDD 050 Paradise Cove, 28128 PCH, Malibu (in front
of Sand Castle Rest.)
Department of Health Services SDD 060 26610 Latigo Shore Dr. Malibu (in front of
Latigo Bay Villa treatment plant)
Department of Health Services SDD 070 Corral Beach, 25500 PCH, Malibu (at
lifeguard station by bridge)
Department of Health Services SDD 080 Malibu Point, Malibu Colony Dr., Malibu
(at fence east side)
Department of Health Services SDD 090 Surfrider Beach, Malibu (in front of
restrooms)
City of Los Angeles SDH 100 Surfrider Beach, seaward of restrooms, Malibu
Department of Health Services SDD 110 Malibu Pier, Malibu (50 yds east of
pier)
Department of Health Services SDD 120 Las Flores Beach, 21150 PCH, Malibu
(mouth of Los Flores Creek)
Department of Health Services SDD 130 Big Rock Beach, 19900 PCH, Malibu (off
point)
City of Los Angeles SDH 140 Seaward of lifeguard tower, Topanga State Beach,
Malibu
Department of Health Services SMD 150 17200 PCH, Pacific Palisades (1/4 mi E of
Gladstone's Rest. & Sunset drain)
Department of Health Services SMD 160 Bel Air Bay Club, 16801 PCH, Pacific
Palisades (at chain link fence E. of Bay Club)
City of Los Angeles SMH 170 50 yards east of Pulga Canyon storm drain, Pacific
Palisades
Department of Health Services SMD 180 15100 PCH, Pacific Palisades (at Will
Rogers Beach lifeguard headquarters)
City of Los Angeles SMH 190 50 yards east of Santa Monica Canyon storm drain,
Santa Monica Beach State Park
Department of Health Services SMD 200 San Vicente Blvd extended, Santa Monica
(E. side of Santa Monica Swim Club)
Department of Health Services SMD 210 Montana Avenue extended, Santa Monica
(50 yds east of stormdrain)
Department of Health Services SMD 220 400 feet east of Wilshire Blvd., Santa
Monica (at tallest building)
City of Los Angeles SMH 230 50 yards southeast of Santa Monica Pier, Santa
Monica
City of Los Angeles SMH 240 50 yards southeast of Pico Kenter storm drain, Santa
Monica
Department of Health Services SMD 250 Strand Street extended, Santa Monica (in
front of restroom)
Department of Health Services SMD 260 Ashland stormdrain, Santa Monica (50 yds
north of stormdrain)
City of Los Angeles SMH 270 50 yards southeast of Ashland storm drain,
Venice
Department of Health Services SMD 280 Brooks Ave extended, Venice (50 yds south
of Brooks stormdrain)
City of Los Angeles SMH 290 50 yards northwest of Windward storm drain, Venice
Department of Health Services SBD 300 Venice Pier, Venice (50 yds south of
pier)
Department of Health Services SBD 310 Topsail Street extended, Venice
City of Los Angeles SBH 320 Extended lifeguard tower, Mothers Beach, Marina del
Rey
Department of Health Services SBD 330 Marina del Rey Beach playground, Marina
del Rey
Department of Health Services SBD 340 Marina del Rey Beach, Marina del Rey
(between tower and boat dock)
Department of Health Services SBD 350 Los Angeles Co. Fire Department
Dock, Marina del Rey
Department of Health Services SBD 360 Los Angeles Co. Harbor Patrol Dock,
Marina del Rey
City of Los Angeles SBH 370 50 yards south of Ballona Creek Channel,
Playa del Rey
City of Los Angeles SBH 380 Culver Blvd. extended, north side
of storm drain, Playa del Rey
Department of Health Services SBD 390 World Way extended, Playa
del Rey (0.15 mi south of maintenance bldg., south of jetty)
City of Los Angeles SBY 400 50 yards north of Imperial Highway
storm drain, Playa del Rey
Department of Health Services SBD 410 Opposite Hyperion Plant, Playa del Rey (50
yds north of stormdrain)
Department of Health Services SBD 420 Grand Ave extended, El Segundo
City of Los Angeles SSH 430 40th Street extended, Manhattan Beach
Department of Health Services SSD 440 26th Street extended, Hermosa Beach
City of Los Angeles SSH 450 50 yards south of Manhattan Pier, Manhattan
Beach
City of Los Angeles SSH 460 50 yards south of Hermosa Pier, Hermosa
Beach
Department of Health Services SSD 470 Herondo Street extended,
Redondo Beach (50 yds north of stormdrain)
City of Los Angeles SSH 480 50 yards south of Redondo Pier, Redondo
Beach
Department of Health Services SSD 490 Topaz Street extended, Redondo
Beach (north side of jetty)
City of Los Angeles SSH 500 50 yards south of Avenue I storm drain,
Redondo Beach
City of Los Angeles SSH 520 Extension of Arroyo Circle, Malaga
Cove, Palos Verdes Estates
County Sanitation Districts SPJ 520 Long Point
County Sanitation Districts SPJ 530 Bluff Cove
County Sanitation Districts SPJ 540 Abalone Cove
County Sanitation Districts SPJ 550 Portuguese Bend
County Sanitation Districts SPJ 560 Whites Point
County Sanitation Districts SPJ 570 Wilder Addition Park
City of Los Angeles SCH 580 Cabrillo Beach, off boat launch ramp,
north side, San Pedro
City of Los Angeles SCH 590 Cabrillo Beach, in front of restroom,
extension of museum, San Pedro
County Sanitation Districts SCJ 600 Cabrillo Beach
Detailed station descriptions for the inshore monitoring program. Latitudes and
longitudes are listed in Appendix 1.
Agency Site ID Description
City of Los Angeles IDH 10 Off Westward Beach (Zuma), Malibu
City of Los Angeles IDH 20 Off Paradise Cove, Malibu
City of Los Angeles IDH 30 Off Corral Beach, Malibu
City of Los Angeles IBH 40 Off Surfrider Beach, extended lagoon breach,
Malibu
City of Los Angeles IBH 50 Off Topanga State Beach point, Malibu
City of Los Angeles ISH 60 Off Pico Kenter storm drain, Santa Monica
City of Los Angeles ISH 70 Off Venice Pier, Venice
City of Los Angeles ISH 80 Off mouth of Ballona Creek, Playa del Rey
City of Los Angeles ISH 90 Off Gillis Rocks, Playa del Rey
City of Los Angeles ISH 100 Off D&W's, Playa del Rey
City of Los Angeles ISH 110 King Harbor, 280 Marina Way, Redondo Beach
County Sanitation Districts IPJ 120 Long Point
County Sanitation Districts IPJ 140 Portuguese Point
County Sanitation Districts IPJ 160 Bunker Point
County Sanitation Districts IPJ 170 Royal Palms
County Sanitation Districts IPJ 180 West of Point Fermin
County Sanitation Districts ICJ 190 Cabrillo Beach
There are 60 shoreline stations, sampled by the Los Angeles County Department of Health
Services (DHS), Hyperion (Los Angeles City), and CSDLA (County Sanitation Districts of
Los Angeles. DHS samples weekly and Hyperion and CSDLA (with the exception of two
stations) sample daily. [check this out] In July of 1994, DHS and Hyperion traded
responsibility for many shoreline stations, with Hyperion focusing primarily on piers and
stormdrains and DHS chiefly on the most used beaches. This concentrates routine daily
sampling effort at those locations where past experience shows that problems are most likely
to occur and where contamination is highest. DHS's weekly sampling is adequate in most
instances to identify and track potential problems at the beaches. When it is not, Hyperion's
and CSDLA's field and laboratory crews provide a flexible rapid response capability that
allows DHS to target additional sampling where and when it is needed. For example, since
most shoreline contamination stems from piers and stormdrains, the daily sampling will
typically identify potential problems quickly enough for additional sampling to be targeted at
beaches when necessary.
This shoreline sampling plan and its distribution of effort among the three primary agencies
involved in part reflects their respective sampling and laboratory capacities. However, it is
also an efficient and effective use of available resources. While it might theoretically be
worthwhile to increase sampling effort during the rainy season when contamination problems
are more frequent and severe, it is not practically feasible to increase and then decrease
laboratory capacity throughout the year. In addition, while it is true that runoff and therefore
contaminant levels are highest in the wet season, beach usage is highest in the dry season.
Thus risk, roughly approximated as a combination of contaminant and usage levels, seems
relatively similar in wet and dry seasons. Further, the shoreline stations provide coverage of
piers, major stormdrains, and other key runoff sources on a daily basis, which is the
maximum frequency that is both feasible and scientifically meaningful. Finally, they cover
the highly frequented beaches at an adequate interval, with the ability to quickly increase
both sampling frequency and intensity as needed.
Figure 2b shows the locations of the 17 inshore sampling stations. Inshore stations must be
sampled by boat, and cost and logistical constraints limit the number of stations that can be
sampled in one day. As described above, stations are located at 30 feet depth or 1000 feet
from shore, whichever is furthest. Stations are located in areas with heavy usage (e.g., kelp
beds) and/or high potential for contamination from nonpoint sources. Potential inshore sites
throughout the Bay were prioritized by the workgroup and available sampling effort was then
assigned to them in descending order of importance.
The inshore stations, like the shoreline stations, are sampled consistently throughout the year.
Again, runoff and therefore contamination are highest in the wet season, which corresponds
with the lobster sport diving season. However, dive classes and casual sport diving peak in
the summer. Since it is impossible to quantitatively weigh these relative risk levels, sampling
simply occurs consistently year-round rather than being weighted more heavily to one season
or another.
Relationship to Management Information Needs
The monitoring design primarily reflects the requirements of the first main management
information need, compliance and health management. As explained in the next section, the
design is therefore not optimally suited for making generalizations about health risks in the
Bay. In addition, while specific restoration actions have not yet been undertaken, there are
probably enough stations in the current design to permit effective comparisons between sites
where restoration actions will be taken and sites where no action will occur.
The Design's Statistical Basis
Each of the three primary management needs (Table 2) can be expressed
as questions which can only be answered by specific kinds of information
(Table 4). Examining the statistical basis of the monitoring design
helps determine whether it will successfully provide this information.
Unavoidable tradeoffs result from using one monitoring design
to address all three types of issues and questions shown in Tables
2 and 4. As explained in more detail below, the overriding interest
in compliance and health management restricts the ability to assess
relative safety in various parts of the Bay.
The following sections briefly discuss the kinds of analysis approaches
best suited to the questions in Table 4, along with relevant statistical
issues. Relatively straightforward methods are available for addressing
compliance and health management questions and for evaluating
restoration actions. Assessing relative safety requires somewhat
more consideration of alternative methods.
Table 4.
The three primary management needs expressed as questions, along with the information
required to answer them. Question Required Information
- Manage compliance and health
- Are standards being violated_
- Should warnings be posted_
- Should beaches be closed_
Daily indicator measurements in high use areas
Daily indicator measurements in high risk areas
Identification of sources of spills and contamination
- Assess relative safety
- Where are the riskiest areas_
- When are the riskiest times_
- Are conditions improving_
Classification of monitoring sites by degree of risk
Average risk measures for predefined Bay regions
Measures of trends over time
- Evaluate restoration actions
- Are actions having effects_
- Are these effects worthwhile_
Structured comparisons with reference sites
Comparison to larger regional context
Managing Compliance and Health
Compliance monitoring and health management are essentially site-specific
activities. This follows from the conceptual model's key assumption
that most contamination stems from storm drains, that pathogens
die off relatively quickly in seawater, and that localized pathogen
levels therefore reflect the input of nearby drains. As a result,
data from monitoring sites can, for the most part, be analyzed
individually. Indicator measurements at each station are separately
compared to regulatory standards. If indicator values at a station
exceed these standards, various actions can be taken, depending
on indicator levels, the circumstances, and past data from that
station. In the case of a large spill, as has occurred in the
past from Ballona Creek, data from several adjoining stations
may be evaluated together if the spill contaminates a section
of shoreline.
Statistical procedures are uncomplicated, involving simple comparisons
with regulatory standards and the computation of straightforward
averages. Counts that are elevated but still below the compliance
standard can be difficult to interpret and may require additional
sampling to pin down the source of the contamination. It would
also be helpful to examine the effect of daily variability, which
is often very high, on the usefulness of monthly medians in compliance
tests for total coliforms.
Assessing Relative Safety
Assessing relative safety requires addressing the questions shown
in Table 4. As Table 2 shows, accomplishing this depends on having
indicators that accurately reflect health risk. Without these,
no adjustments to the monitoring design and no statistical analyses
(no matter how sophisticated) will meet this management goal.
Assuming that the research and development program can produce
such indicators, the present monitoring design permits a variety
of informative analyses.
However, the sampling design has one fundamental statistical feature
that will limit all assessments of relative safety. Neither shoreline
nor nearshore monitoring stations are randomly located. Instead,
they are deliberately placed at sites (e.g., stormdrains) where
human use and/or pathogen contamination are assumed to be highest.
As a result, the monitoring data cannot be used to generalize
about either regions of the Bay or the Bay as a whole. Attempting
to do so would result in biased estimates of regional contamination
because stations are deliberately placed where contamination is
highest. In extreme terms, this would be analogous to generalizing
about the temperature in your kitchen based on a thermometer reading
taken in the flame of a stove burner. Instead, monitoring data
can only be used to draw conclusions about the particular kinds
of sites where sampling actually occurs. For instance, if shoreline
stations are a representative subset of all stormdrains, monitoring
data can support generalizations about stormdrains. Similarly,
if these stations are representative of only the worst stormdrains,
then conclusions can only be drawn about this class of stormdrains.
This is a limitation of sorts. However, the present sampling design
does maximize safety and presents a conservative picture of relative
risk. This is because it specifically focuses on areas where contamination
is assumed to be greatest and where daily sampling can provide
an early warning of potentially more widespread effects.. In addition,
the monitoring design reflects the overriding concern of the management
system with compliance and health management. As a result, short
of establishing a separate set of sampling stations, the effort
to assess relative safety must necessarily accept the tradeoffs
involved with this monitoring design.
Within this overall constraint, Table 4 lists three distinct kinds
of information needed to answer questions about relative safety.
Analyses used to generate this information must take account of
the following issues. There are several levels of temporal variability.
Wet and dry seasons differ dramatically. Within the wet season,
runoff and therefore contaminant outflow peaks during storm events.
Among storms, early season storms carry higher loads of contaminants
than do storms later in the season. Finally, bacterial counts
often change dramatically from one day to the next. If analyses
are properly structured to account for the seasonal and storm-related
variability, then daily variability would be used as the background
variability in any analyses of pattern and trend. There are at
least two levels of spatial variability to consider. Separate
stations often have distinct characteristics that reflect the
areas they drain. At a somewhat larger scale, regions of the Bay
also have somewhat different characteristics, again reflecting
the watersheds they contain.
The large amount of variability in this situation makes it difficult
to draw simple conclusions about patterns and trends in indicators
of risk. The daily station-by-station data are suited for ongoing
compliance and health management, but the raw data are too variable
and confusing for this other kind of "big picture" analysis.
It would therefore be helpful to summarize and/or simplify the
raw data to help answer the questions in Table 4. Data smoothing
techniques could help identify and group stations with clearly
similar contamination patterns over time. This would help answer
the questions: Where are the riskiest areas_ and When are the
riskiest times_ If some characteristics of the smoothed curves
can be numerically defined, then a multivariate cluster and/or
ordination analysis could be performed on these derived data.
This would provide a more analytical method of grouping stations
with similar contamination patterns over time. Alternatively,
an ANOVA, stratified by season and other important sources of
variability, could be used to group similar stations. The analysis
could be performed on the log-transformed data themselves, on
values taken from specific points on the smoothed curves, or on
some derived numerical characteristic of the curves.
Such analyses, performed on the entire set of sampling stations,
would group stations with similar contamination patterns. These
would not necessarily be spatially contiguous sets of stations.
Instead such station groups are likely to contain similar stations
scattered throughout the Bay. This would directly address the
question, "Where are the riskiest areas_" It would then
be up to managers and scientists to interpret and describe these
relative degrees of risk in terms meaningful to the public.
Another analysis approach is to compare the relative risk associated
with groups of stations from pre-defined regions of the Bay (e.g.,
Malibu, Santa Monica). This could be accomplished by simply presenting
the area averages and confidence limits of the transformed indicator
values, of the smoothed curves, or of the derived numerical characteristics
of the curves. These averages could also be compared more analytically
with an ANOVA. For this and the other analyses suggested above,
An important htmlect of assessing relative risk is determining
whether apparent risk is increasing, decreasing, or staying the
same over time. This question is equally applicable to individual
stations, to groups of similar stations, and to pre-defined areas
of the Bay. The most straightforward approach to this question
would be to examine confidence limits around the smoothed curves
of indicator values over time at the monitoring stations. Average
curves for station groups and pre-defined areas could also be
compared from one time period to the next. If specific time periods
must be compared (e.g., one year's wet season to the next), then
a simple t-test on the two sets of data would be appropriate.
Because of the large amount of data available, more sophisticated
questions could be addressed with time series analysis.
Evaluating Restoration Actions
Restoration actions are planned for specific stormdrains and creeks.
A straightforward monitoring impact design can be used to determine
the results of these actions. "Treatment" stormdrains
at which actions are planned should be paired with similar reference
stormdrains which will not be treated. Within the limits of cost
and logistics, better results will be obtained if replicate treatment
and reference stormdrains can be used. A BACI (Before-After-Control-Impact)
analysis can then be used to judge whether the restoration actions
have affected the preexisting differences between the treatment
and reference sites. A key to the success of this analysis is
the selection of valid reference stations against which the treatments
can be compared.
Database Development
There are two main goals for the data management effort. These are to make data readily
available as needed to address the issues in Tables 2 and 4 and to provide software tools to
efficiently analyze and present the data. This requires that all data management procedures
and database tools be focused on meeting such key information needs. Chapter X describes
the regional data management concept and structure in detail. This is the larger context for
the bacteriology-specific topics described here.
End User Application
End users of regional bacteriology monitoring data include the Hyperion and LACSD
monitoring staffs, as well as the County Department of Health Services and the Regional
Board. Once they receive raw monitoring data, they are interested in such operations as
scanning them for out-of-compliance events, inspecting trends at particular stations over
various time periods. Because they have more regional responsibilities, Health Services and
the Regional Board are also interested in comparing different regions of the Bay. This
requires the ability to readily combine data from the City of Los Angeles and the County
Sanitation Districts and to then perform these operations using efficient data visualization
tools like mapping and graphing. It also requires moving data to statistical analysis
software to perform the analyses described above in section The Design's
Statistical
Basis.
A simple software system is being developed to assist end users. It will load monitoring data
received in standardized format (see below), incorporate data display functions such as plots
and maps, and produce a variety of summary reports. [Further description when system is
completed.]
Standardized Transfer Formats
Implementing a standardized transfer format is an important part
of each individual program element. It is a fundamental prerequisite
for the success of end user applications like the one described
above. The goal of standardized transfer file formats is to formalize
data exchanges. This will make it easier for data recipients to
understand and use the data, improve overall data quality, and
eliminate the costly task of reformatting data when they are combined
and/or exchanged. Data sources can automate the production of
standardized files and recipients can be assured that they will
receive the same formats regardless of the source.
A "transfer file" is actually a package composed of three or more separate, ASCII text files.
Each package includes one Master and one Sample/Event file and one or more Data files.
The Master file contains fields that define a sample, such as sample ID, sampling location,
date, time, and data type. The Sample/Event file contains information about the sampling
event, such as the volume, weight, depth, sample type, and other descriptive fields. The
structure of these tables is the same for all data types.
Results data are stored in one or more Data files, specifically designed for each data type.
Bacteriology data, for example, has one Data file while benthic infauna is made up of
separate abundance and biomass files. The structure of the relevant files for bacteriology data
is shown in Table 6.
Table 6.
Transfer file structures and formats for the bacteriology component of the comprehensive
monitoring program. See Chapter X for more detail.